How the Nifty will behave in July 2022: Check Now

The July series has just begun.

In fact, on the very first day, we witnessed huge volatility as far as the Nifty is concerned, which made a high of 15794 and a low of 15511.

Since the new series has started, index and options traders would love to know where the Nifty ends at the end of the month; will it end in green or red.

To answer these historical data will be very useful. If we consider the last eight years’ data it shows bulls managed to get an upper hand on Dalal Street, where the Nifty fell just once and gained seven times.

The Nifty rose 0.3 percent in the year 2021, followed by a 7.5 percent rise in 2020, and a little over 1 percent gain in the year 2014. The index rose 2 percent in 2015, 4.2 percent in 2016, 5.8 percent in 2017, and 6 percent in 2018.

However, on the down, the Nifty suffered 5.7 percent in the year 2019.

If we stretch our study further and take 20 years of data into account, history suggests that there have been at least ten instances where the Nifty index has delivered more than 4 percent return in July and only two instances when the Nifty saw a fall of over 5 percent in the same month, (9.2 down percent in the year 2002 and 5.7 percent in 2019).

Investors and traders’ nerves would be tested in the ongoing month, as companies begin disclosing first-quarter earnings that may see the maximum impact of a rise in inflation playing out.

However, there are some encouraging signs such as GST collection of June, monthly auto sales from tata motors, and good monsoon progress that would help the index going forward.

On the technical front, one should remain cautious going into the July series (preferred short-term trading range of 15,200 to 16,200), with a broad range of 14500 on the lower side and 18000 on the higher side.

In a nutshell, if history is to go by, the chances of the NSE benchmark index delivering a solid return in July 2022 are reasonable.

Disclaimer: The contents and data presented here are just for your information and personal use only. While much effort is made to provide the information, FinBlab or I (Vishal Dalwadi) do not guarantee the accuracy, correctness, completeness or reliability of any information or data displayed herein and shall not be held responsible.